The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could adversely impact Jamaica’s economy, contributing to an expected contraction for the first quarter of this year.

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) said the short term economic outlook is negative.

PIOJ Director General Dr. Wayne Henry noted that the projection for January to March 2026 is contraction within 4 to 6%, while for fiscal year 2025 to 2026, its within one and 2%.

Speaking yesterday at a press briefing, Dr. Henry pointed out that growth is not expected until the last quarter, October to December.

He said geopolitical tensions will affect oil prices and trade.

Dr. Henry said there are some upsides in the outlook to include rebounds in the construction, tourism and agriculture industries.